Election Eve Thoughts and Predictions

Hopefully in the next 48 hours this whole ordeal will be over. Something happened to me this year. I’m not entirely sure of all the reasons why, but whereas I usually eat up political seasons, this year I am feeling more fed up. I’m still passionate, still engaged, but definitely ready for this to be over!

Here are a few things to keep in mind as we head into Election Day:

  • Remember how wrong the exits polls were in 2004 and 2008. I hope the media remembers this, as well. It is going to be a late night as we wait for those more rural counties in Ohio and Wisconsin to report their tallies. Expect Obama to have a sizable lead in Ohio earlier on. Romney should cut away at that lead as more counties report.
  • Expect shock and awe from the media if Romney wins. I recommend not even turning on MSNBC. It’s bad for your heart.
  • If Obama wins, watch Conservatives light Chris Christie on fire. I’m not convinced that their palling around after Sandy really made that big of a difference, but I appear to be in the minority on this point.

Here are my “No Matter What…” bottom lines:

  • We are so incredibly blessed to live in a country in which there will be a peaceful transition of power. Amazing.
  • I believe God’s word over the polls. Regardless of who wins, “The king’s heart is a stream of water in the hand of the LORD; he turns it wherever he will.” (Proverbs 21:1) God is sovereign and good. I’m going to be fine.

Now, my predictions on the results: Romney will win big. I think the pollsters have massively underestimated the shift in the electorate toward Republicans. I created my own map at Real Clear Politics. My biggest uncertainty is Pennsylvania. A Romney win there could be a stretch. But even if he loses Pennsylvania, he wins the Electoral College. I also see a Romney win in Michigan and/or Minnesota as a possibility.

What about the Senate? If Romney wins the Presidency, Republicans take back the Senate. If he does not, Democrats will retain control of the Senate.

I could be wrong. It happens from time to time.

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